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Rosebud, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Rosebud SD
National Weather Service Forecast for: Rosebud SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Rapid City, SD
Updated: 2:49 am CDT Jun 29, 2025
 
Overnight

Overnight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe.  Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 66. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Severe
T-Storms
Sunday

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 82. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Chance
T-storms
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Chance
T-storms
Monday

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunny then
Sunny and
Breezy
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Mostly Clear

Tuesday

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm.  Sunny, with a high near 91. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunny then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
T-storms
Wednesday

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 94. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunny

Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Slight Chance
T-storms
Lo 66 °F Hi 82 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 82 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 62 °F Hi 94 °F Lo 66 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Overnight
 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 66. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Monday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
 
A slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny, with a high near 91. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 94. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 95. Breezy.
Thursday Night
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Breezy.
Independence Day
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.
Friday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Saturday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Rosebud SD.

Weather Forecast Discussion
013
FXUS63 KUNR 290519
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1119 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storms (some severe) this afternoon,
  mainly along and south of I-90. Primary hazards will be damaging
  wind gusts and large hail.

- Thunderstorms continue through tonight into Sunday, with locally
  heavy rainfall possible

- Drier on Monday. Chances for isolated thunderstorms return
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows CU field developing across
northeastern WY and along a sfc boundary over the Black Hills. Sfc
obs show dewpoints in the 50s to 60s across much of western SD
into northeastern WY with drier air over southwestern SD and
nosing into the Black Hills. Corridor of 2000+ J/kg CAPE has
developed across much of the western SD plains and northeastern WY
with mostly clear skies allowing plenty of sfc heating. 18z UNR
RAOB does show a modest capping inversion from 850-775 mb which
has limited convection thus far. Isolated storms may develop over
the Black Hills and higher terrain in WY where terrain driven
convergence and upslope flow should be sufficient to overcome the
cap. Any updrafts that form this afternoon will encounter 40kt
bulk shear which will be sufficient for rotating updrafts. With
the relatively fat CAPE profile, dry boundary layer, and modest
low to mid level lapse rates of ~7-8 C/km, main concerns with any
stronger convection will be large hail and damaging winds. Later
tonight, converging outflow boundaries from this afternoons storms
may contribute to a predominately linear mode with a damaging
wind threat becoming the main concern. Additionally, PWAT values
approaching 150-175% of normal will support heavy rainfall with
storms tonight.

Upper level trough deepens and moves to the east through Sunday
with baroclinic zone sagging southward through the area. This
frontal boundary could support more convection Sunday afternoon.
In terms of severe potential, widespread severe weather isn`t
expected with afternoon CAPE values approaching 1000-1500 J/kg,
however 30-40kt 0- 6 km shear could support a few stronger
updrafts.

Ridge builds into the region Sunday night into Monday with large
scale subsidence and drier air supporting a warm and dry day
Monday. The ridge will also facilitate the return of warmer
temperatures to the region through the next week. Northwest flow
will set up over the CWA as the ridge remains to our west. This
will support chances for at least daily chances for isolated
convection from Tuesday through the mid week as weak disturbances
move along the upper level flow and low level southerly flow
continues to advect warm and moist air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 1119 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

ISO/SCT TSRA and associated localized MVFR/IFR conditions will
continue to move from west to east across the area thru the night,
but impacts are not expected at TAF sites. Areas of MVFR/IFR in
low stratus and SHRA may develop around or after 09z, mainly
along northern/northeastern slopes of the Black Hills. Additional
rounds of SHRA/TSRA are anticipated thru the remainder of the
period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Sherburn
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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